ANALYSIS

This section deals with political analysis that cover the entire region.

Pre- 1997 General Election analysis

THE ECONOMIC REVIEW
Published: December 21- 28, 1997

EYE OF THE STORM:

Coast province will be of prime significance to President Moi in the next week’s elections being one of the areas that he is relying on for the mandatory 25 percent in five provinces if he is to emerge the outright winner. During the 1992 general elections, Moi garnered 62.1 percent in the province, giving him comfortable lead over the other contenders. His closest rival was the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga (Ford Kenya), received 15.4 percent.

This will therefore be a central issue in the run-up to the polls, and it was no surprise when all three outgoing KANU MPs in the district subsequently lost during the Kanu nominations. Mr. Kassim Bakari Mwamzandi (Msambweni) was soundly trounced by Maendeleo ya Wanawake Organization (MYWO) Kwale district official Ms. Marere Wamwachai. At their last encounter during the 1992 elections, Wamwachai, who was then running on the ticket of the Democratic Party of Kenya (DP), gave Mwamzandi a big scare. Losing by only 3, 082 votes in a constituency then regarded as a Kanu stronghold.

Her supporters hotly disputed the outcome and were burning for rematch by the time Kanu nominations were called last month. With Mwamzandi safely out of the way, Wamwachai starts off as the favourite, although formidable opposition is expected from the Democratic Party of Kenya DP outgoing Vanga councillor Mr. Yusuf Mbwana and the Shirikisho Party of Kenya’s (SPK) Mr. Kassim Juma, who hails from the island of Wasini. Of the two, Mbwana appears to have a slight edge, not only because of political experience, but also the fact that Juma’s Wasini origins will almost certainly be belaboured to deny him the vote of the majority Digo.

In Matuga constituency, the scenario has also changed dramatically following the loss of the outgoing Kanu MP and parliamentary whip Mr. Boy Juma Boy, during the nomination to Mr. Mwamlole Mbwana. The fight will largely revolve around Mbwana, the Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) Mr. Masudi Mwakileo, who defected from Kanu after losing; a son of a former area MP, the late Ali Mwakileo, who lost during the Kanu nominations; and SPK’s Mr. Magomba Mwapeu. The National Development Party of Kenya’s (NDP) Mr. Omari Gakesho is also likely to have impact, but not enough to catapult him to the top.

The scenario is different in Kwale district’s predominately Duruma Kinango constituency where the former managing director of the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA), Kanu’s Simeon Mkala, is the hot favourite to win the seat after trouncing the outgoing MP Mr. Gonzi Rai. Mkala’s chances have been boosted by the failure of the Social Democratic Party to field aspirant to capitalise on the sizeable Kamba vote in the Shimba hills area.

Elsewhere in Kilifi District, eyes are set on Bahari constituency where the main battle revolves around the man now carrying the Kanu banner, former Ford Kenya official, Mr. Jembe Mwakalu; Mr. John Safari Mumba who lost out in the Kanu nominations and is now running on the DP ticket; and Ford Kenya’s Mr. Mtana Lewa. Although Mwakalu appears to have a headstart, the real determinant will be ethnicity. Mumba is a Kauma, while Mwakalu and Lewa are Chonyi. Another candidate to watch will be SPK’s Maurice Mboja, a Giriama who in the past commanded a great deal of support from the community.

In Malindi district, the outgoing Malindi MP Mr. Abubakar Badawy, was also declared the winner in rather controversial circumstances forcing his principal rival, former Malindi Town mayor, Mr. Frederick Diwani, to decamp to the NDP. Despite the entry of former MP, Mr. Francis Bobbi Tuva, the feeling on the ground is that the real tussle for the Malindi seat will revolve around Badawy and Diwani.

In Magarini constituency, the outgoing MP, Mr. Jonathan Katana Ndzai, lost during the Kanu nominations to a newcomer and favourite of the youth David Kombe. Ndzai has since decamped to the DP on whose ticket he will be running in a battle that should see Kombe start off as frontrunner, but with Messrs Maurice Mangi, who lost during the Kanu nominations and is now running on an SDP ticket, and Josseph Kasena Yeri (Ford Kenya) also putting up as strong fight.

Apart from the significant presence of upcountry voters, elections in the four-constituency Mombasa district like in 1992, are likely to be influence by the Islamic party of Kenya (IPK) factor, and the long standing divide between the Coastals of African descent and those of Arab origin. Added to these will be the recent violence which targeted upcountry people and left over 65 people dead, hundreds maimed, tens of thousands displaced, and millions worth of property destroyed. The violence, which was largely blamed on the ruling party due to the government’s initial apathy to bring the mayhem to an end, is likely to be a major issue, especially in Likoni constituency which was hardest hit.

The main parties set to fight it out include President Moi’s Kanu, which is seeking to consolidate its position in Coast province, Mr. Raila Odinga’s NDP, Mr. Mwai Kibaki’s DP and Mrs. Chairty Ngilu’s SDP. In 1992, Kanu was ambushed in Mombasa when the opposition took three of the four parliamentary seats, with Ford Kenya, buoyed by its alliance with IPK, taking two seats and the DP another.

This time, Ford Kenya and the NDP are jostling for IPK support, with the NDP seeming to have an upper hand. Apart from the recent violence, which appears likely to recur nearer to polling day, Likoni, where the Digo and the Luo constitute the majority, is likely to be the focus of the district as two brothers fights it out on different party tickets. A former MP, Mr. Abdulkadir Mwidau (NDP), and his younger brother, Mr. Hisham Mwidau (Kanu), are out to oust outgoing MP, Mr. Khalif Mwavumo, who is defending the seat on a Ford Kenya ticket, but whose 1992 Luo/Digo support has been significantly eroded by the entry of the NDP. Abdulkadir will be banking mainly on the NDP bloc vote, but this may be affected by reports that a considerable number of the party’s supporters have moved out of the area for fear of their lives. Kanu’s Hisham, on the other hand, apart from competing with elder brother fro family support, will have to contend with anti-Kanu sentiments from the recent violence. The DP’s Mr. Sammy Wafula; the SDP’s Mr. Salim Mwakutsuma; Mr. Suleiman Shakombo of Shirikisho Party of Kenya (SPK) and Ford Asili’s Ms. Grace Gituma, are unlikely to make much impact.

Kisauni is also set to experience a bruising battle, with the NDP, Kanu and the DP as the main contenders. The former Ford Kenya second vice-chairman and outgoing MP, Prof. Rashid Mzee, who recently defected to the NDP, is considered the frontrunner. But Mzee, who is banking on the IPK and upcountry support, will have to contend with the animosity that followed his nomination as well as the division within IPK over the new NDP/IPK pact. Mzee, who is also facing strong challenge from the former Kenyan ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Mr. Said Hemed (Kanu), was nominated unopposed at the expense of the former IPK organising secretary Mr. Abubakar Awadh, who is now running on a Ford Kenya ticket. Although Hemed has resources on his side, he will have to work extra hard to overcome the traditional rivalry between his Arab community and the indigenous population. The controversial Mr. Emmanuel Karisa Maitha, who was implicated in the recent violence, is also back in contention on a DP ticket, after quitting Kanu in a huff on losing to Hemed during the party nominations. He will be banking on the indigenous Mijikenda vote, but his main affect might be to eat into Hemed’s support.

In the cosmopolitan Mvita constituency, former Caost Kanu powerbroker, Mr. Shariff Nassir, who overcame a major onslaught at the ruling party nominations from former Mombasa mayor Rajab Sumba, is set for a rematch with the NDP candidate, former Ford Asili organising secretary, Mr. Ahmed Salim Bamahariz, and the man who gave him a scare in 1992, IPK chairman Mr. Omar Mwinyi (Ford Kenya). The experienced Nassir, who has lost much of his previous clout, will be forced to fight tooth-and-nail to overcome the two.

However, the Changamwe seat is expected to go the DP, if the outgoing MP, Mr. Kennedy Kiliku, combines experience with significant Kamba presence in the constituency. But his Kamba vote bank is threatened by the entry of SDP’s Mr. William Nduva, who might split the community’s votes to the benefit of the NDP candidate, Mr. Okoth Waudi. An old hand in the area politics, Kanu’s Ramadhan Kajembe, is expected to put up a fierce fight, albeit without much impact. Other candidates are Mr. Mohmaed Faki (Ford Kenya), Mrs. Loise N Nzioka of the Kenya Social Congress (KSC) and Ford Asili’s Mr. Lucas Adams.

CPPSS comments: The above analysis was not as accurate. The analysis considered Shakombo, Maitha & Kajembe as non-starters and not expected to make any impact on the polls but the three politicians went to win in their respective constituencies' races.

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THE ECONOMIC REVIEW:
Oct 27 – Nov. 2, 1997

ELECTION PROFILES

Lamu District: Placid No More

Compared to the other districts of Coast province, far-flung Lamu district, which was one of the 15 century’s leading city states along the East African coast, has always been relatively placid. Encompassing a group of islands, including Pate and Manda, the district, which comprises Lamu East and Lamu West constituencies, is considered the bastion of Islam in the country, is fast coming out of age politically owing to interest by outsiders and increasingly competitive political contests in the area.

Lamu district is one of the least developed districts in Coast province and much of that is attributed to communication difficulties. The district was also heavily affected by the “shifta” menace in the sixties and early seventies.

THE main economic activities in the area are tourism, fishing and cotton growing. Harvesting of mangrove poles for export is also major economic activity, and the current ban on large-scale cutting down of mangrove trees is likely to be a major issue. Apart from a nagging squatter problem, attacks by bandits form neighboring Garisa district and Somalia persists. The district also lacks all-weather roads, health facilities and adequate water supply. By going by current events, the forthcoming elections is likely to be hotly contested, with opposition parties, mainly the Democratic Party of Kenya, Ford Asili and Ford Kenya, keen to turn the tables on Kanu to improve their 1992 performance. Ford Kenya chairman Michael Kijana Wamwalwa, recently made several tours in the area, seeking to shore up opposition to Kanu, which captured both Lamu East (Abu Mohamed Chiaba) and Lamu West (Abdulkarim Mohamed Ali) at the last elections.

Lamu, which often experiences spillover affects of major political events in the other Coastal districts, especially Mombasa, was hardly influenced by the unregistered Islamic Party of Kenya (IPK) in the last elections, despite being the citadel of Islam. Apart from party affiliation and individual capability, outside influence and ethnic considerations are likely to be the major deciding factors at the elections.

Lamu district is a melting pot of various ethnic groups, and political parties are likely to tread carefully. The district is inhabited by the indigenous and dominant Bajuni, as well as the Arab, Boni, Sanye, Orma, Kores and Giriama ethnic groups, and the Barawa who trace their origins to southern Somalia. There is also a strong presence of members of the Bohra faith, who trace their ancestry to Indiana sub-continent, and showed their clout at the last elections when one of their own Abdulkarim Ali, was elected in Lamu West. There is also a significant Kikuyu presence around the lake Kenyatta Settlement Scheme in Lamu West’s Mpeketoni division. The settlers, who comprise nearly half of the voters there, were the beneficiaries of a government settlement scheme programme in the late sixties and early 1970’s, and have become political force.

Of great interest will be the Kanu nominations in both constituencies, where Mombasa tycoon Mr. Twahir Sheikh Said, commonly known as TSS, is said to have a list of preferred candidates and is likely to play a major role in the party primaries. However, observers point out that if Kanu manipulates its nominations, it could play into the hands of the opposition, especially in Lamu West where Kanu is facing a considerable opposition challenge. In Lamu East, Kanu is seen as a frontrunner and the incumbent, Abu Chiaba, is likely to face a strong challenge from the 1992 Ford Kenya candidate Mohamed Hashim Salim, a TSS crony who has since defected to Kanu.

The DP is likely to field a former Mombasa councillor Ms. Somoe Abdalla Amour, who will be making history as the first woman to contest a parliamentary seat in the area. Lamu West, on the other hand, could go either way, taking into account the active opposition presence or the expected fallout in Kanu, where Ali, an assistant minister for labour and manpower development, faces a larger number of aspirants including the proprietor of Mvita Hospital, Dr. Hamid Abdalla and a TSS-backed candidate, Mr. Fahim Twaha. The opposition flag is likely to be carried by Ford Asili’s Mr. Rishad Amana.